Countdown - Computers are ready to take us 100 years ago.
On materials Rospechat
Vladimir Hosick,
Newspaper "St.-Petersburg Vedomosti", 08.19.1998
COUNTDOWN
or
Computers are ready to take us to
hundred years ago
Do not be surprised if you, well
encountering offensive in 2000, can not
use in the early days of the new millennium a number of
familiar comforts. Do not think that the war started or nearing
the end of the world, if you will shut stores, cease flights of
aircraft and departure of trains, suddenly shut off the heat
light or water stops coming mail.
All this will mean one thing - started
massive failures in computer systems. Hypothetical nightmare so
far have repeatedly predicted, calculated and described is
called a "problem 2000 "or" G2K ", for brevity, say computer
scientists. Seeking a way out today, beating hundreds of
thousands of professionals, heads of state, firms and
enterprises. One way or another the problem will affect all the
people whose lives are a little dependent on computers. And it
now applies to each. Therefore, the "2000 problem" - our
common problem.
Children will pay for it,
that will save parents
The whole point is that computers, which
people entrust execution of a set
major operations, with the advent of the XXI century
consider that this was not 2000, and 1900.
And this nonsense wild sow chaos in their
electronic brain, accustomed to think in
pattern.
Mines under our computerized civilization were laid many
years. Inside Each computer has at least one
electronic calendar, automatically counting down seconds,
minutes, hours, days, months, years. Own built-in calendars
many programs and operating systems. But too many of them are
based on the old standard, which is denoted by the year last
two digits. First for electronic brain always remain unchanged
- 19. It happened because in the past programmers were trying
to save as much as possible more RAM (which was worth its
weight in gold), so use two digits to some has been justified.
And then on the "trifling" Numbers simply forgot.
In 1993 alone, a Canadian programmer
Peter De Jager published an article "Judgement
day of 2000, which first declared
impending chaos. But it took another
several years to the "G2K" conspiracy
seriously and have begun to take action. Developed
Western countries have done it last year. America has, for
example, people who are deeply convinced that electronic crisis
will be the beginning of the apocalypse. They are already
buying land, build bunkers, stockpiling weapons and food to
survive in troubled times. Others (among them enough fellow),
by contrast, believe that the matter not worth a damn.
Life, despite the words of the past shows that the rollicking
"maybe" from "G2K" not save.
Big consequences
small casus
The first alarm calls have already heard in the
different parts of the world, including in St. Petersburg. At
least one in serious trouble occurred, we still nearly a year
ago, but still it were not widely advertised.
What went wrong. When students began to move from paper to
plastic tickets, St. Petersburg transporters
have requested information from the university - as
guys on what courses to study. Information
supposed to take in electronic form - on
diskettes. When these data are entered into the computer, he
said that almost half of the students put the cards as they
long since finished school.
Because of "G2K" computers have decided that students who
have yet to receive diplomas in 2000 - 2002, universities have
already left nearly a hundred years ago, having considered the
last date as 1900 - 1902. Well, this man incident in time and
noticed him time to sort out (students may recall that magnetic
cards to be introduced January 1, 1998. But introduced from 1
February. - Comm. YB).
Similar errors with more serious consequences, occurred in
other countries.
Computer networks of several supermarkets in the United
States simply "collapsed" when customers tried to pay off
credit cards, whose validity ends after 2000. Processors cash
devices considered that these cards were issued
even after their term expired.
National Health Service of Great Britain recorded a number of
cases when the computer refused to commit to coming XXI century
date and at the same time destroying the record previously
made, not just computers reported that hospitals do not have in
stock necessary medicines and materials -
because they are in terms of electronics, have become obsolete.
According to Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering
University Nicholas perk that more than a year studying the
problem "2000 problem", at-risk are
all computers and software that were released before
1995. If we consider that they are used by most Russian
enterprises, institutions, firms, the picture is impressive and
frightening. By the way, the program which uses the Office of
the Governor St. Petersburg, the old ones.
But that's not all. Even in some modern programs written for
the most prevalent today operating
system, "Windows 95", may contain errors,
related to "G2K".
There is another nuance. Electronic Systems
management of large enterprises were created over many years.
Today, they represent a highly diverse mosaic of
of old and new programs. Specialists
fear that if such a mosaic system remains at least one computer
with mistake, it can cause so-called domino effect.
And to understand the intricacies of electronic very
difficult, even where the decision, "Problems of 2000" cast
serious resources. To our knowledge, a system of one of the
largest banks in St. Petersburg recently, a "trap" was found
quite by accident, already after the bank's specialists found
work finished.
Expensive cost only
World War II
Price to be paid for the solution "2000", today would call
no. While there are only preliminary
calculations.
St. Petersburg administration and organizations
ensuring the vitality of the city,
as reported to us, deputy head of the telecommunications and
information systems, Vladimir Kireev, will have to fork out for
two to three million U.S. (annual budget control - a little
more than 3.5 million rubles, so the money
still have to search). Total expenses
the entire city, starting businesses, firms,
institutions, will surely be a few
once more.
For comparison: The U.S. government estimates spending on
"training" only "bureaucratic" computers in 4,7 billion
dollars. A global costs are already close to six hundred
billion. And the final figure will likely increase.
It is easier to get off all users with the most popular
programs and operating systems. All the major firms have
released special software that automatically corrects the
"error 2000". They are distributed free of charge, they can
obtained via the Internet or in one of
missions.
Others will have to cool sweat
after all the money - it's not all. Running out
time, and not enough experienced experts.
Most analysts agree
that those who have begun to test their systems
only in early 1998, not earlier, to
2000-mu have time to discover and celebrate not
more than 70 percent of errors.
- To say that we have all been actively
involved in the work, I can not, - says
Vladimir Kireev. - For one simple reason: the two thousandth
year does not begin tomorrow and everyone else - by the throat
immediate problems ...
Even in the U.S. by the middle of this year 60
percentage of large companies have not completed
and the first phase of the assessment of the readiness of their
computers by 2000. What to say about
other countries where opportunities for an order of magnitude
smaller than in America.
The most farsighted politicians try to
not just out of the situation with the least
losses, but even a benefit. No accident that the U.S. created a
special council "Challenge 2000", and the chairman of the
Board was appointed assistant to the president. In the UK, held
a week willingness to 2000, during which emphasis was placed on
the promotion of small businesses in overcoming the "G2K". With
no less serious about the problem and other Western countries.
And in Russia, many behave as if
sure that the computer will bypass the crisis
us as a party. And from this state of affairs
is somehow not on itself.
Do not wait for a thunderstorm
- Let's do without panic and shapkozakidatelstva - calls
Vladimir Kireev. - Universal catastrophe is not worth wait. But
to treat the cause must be serious.
Well, Vladimir talks
correctly. But he acknowledges that we have
everything goes according to the rule of "no thunder clap - a
peasant will not cross." And just may very well come up with a
"2000 problem".
Time for the argument is no longer - the countdown has begun.
And if you do not succeed tackle problems together and no one
to organize this kind of work, so everyone should take care of
itself. Already that, wittingly or unwittingly, will be made
contribution to the cause. And begin to act
You can visit the electronic databases on the Internet, the
addresses of which we publish.
When typeset nomer_____________________
None of the information system of Russian government agencies
has not been solved "2000 problem". This in an interview
Interfax news agency said recently deputy chairman of Russian
State Committee Communication and Information Alexander
Volokitin.
According to him, the necessary information
will be collected only by September. Therefore,
until the end of the year of the State Committee will prepare a
report to the government of the country and indicate the need
to address the problem measures.
Experts say that at present
time on the basis of outdated electronic computers, which are
absolutely not ready to move on the calendar of the XXI century,
operate information systems of all law enforcement agencies,
the Ministry of Railways and the Ministry of Atomic Energy. Only
the initial costs of the Russian government to address "2000
problem" could $ 500 million.
Basic information on how to prepare your computer by the year
2000, please visit the following Internet address:
- Server Electrotechnical University (St. Petersburg):
http://www.eltech.ru
- Russian Information Centre "Problem 2000" (Moscow):
http://www.year2000.ru
- International Information Centre
Year 2000:
http://www.year2000.com
Prepared for publication by Yuri Buravtsov.
From redaktsii_______________________________
Among the people there is a very common mistake (in
particular, it allowed author of the article). Its essence - an
opinion about this XXI century and third millennium. The point
that many people consider this the beginning of
January 1, 2000. But in fact it is
not so. Just remember that chronology began with the 1-year,
rather than 0-th. Therefore, two thousand years later comes the
year 2001, not 2000.
Some tour companies will try to
rip so unprecedented jackpot -
so many people want to meet new
century and new millennium somewhere halfway around the world.
It's not every day there are such events. Most tourists are
expected in Japan as the "Land of the Rising Sun." Those who
wish to first meet the "sun of a new era," there are both In
2000 due to its lack of information, and in 2001 by reality
fact.
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Countdown - Computers are ready to take us 100 years ago.
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